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                    THE 
                      FIELDS INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH IN MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES 
                      20th 
                      ANNIVERSARY 
                      YEAR  
                    
          
             
                        
                        
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                              April 29-June 
                                28, 2013 
                                Thematic Program on the Mathematics of Oceans 
                                 
                             
                            
                  Workshop 
                    on Wave Interactions and Turbulence 
                    May 
                    20 - 24, 2013 
                     
                    Location:  
                    May 
                    20-23: Fields Institute, Room 230 (map) 
                    May 24: Bahen Centre, Room 1190 (map) 
                   
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                  Organizing 
                    Committee:  
                    Walter Craig (McMaster), Sergei Kuksin (Ecole Polytechnique, 
                    Palaiseau), Sergey Nazarenko (Warwick) 
                    Efim 
                    Pelinovsky(Russian Academy of Sciences), Catherine Sulem (Toronto) 
                     
                   
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  To 
    be informed of start times and locations please subscribe to the Fields 
    mail list for information about the Thematic Program on the Mathematics 
    of Oceans.  
            Workshop Schedule 
            
               
      |  
         Monday, May 20 
          Fields Institute, Room 230 
       | 
     
     
      | 10:15 - 10:30 | 
      Welcome and Introduction | 
     
     
      | 10:30 - 11:10 | 
      Sergey Nazarenko, University 
        of Warwick  
        Theoretical challenges in Wave Turbulence | 
     
     
      | 11:15 - 11:55 | 
      Dario Paolo Bambusi, Università 
        degli Studi di Milano  
        On the genaration and propagation of tsunamis  | 
     
     
      | 12:10 - 14:20 | 
      Lunch Break | 
     
     
      | 14:20 - 15:00 | 
      Benno Rumpf, Southern Methodist 
        University  
        An instability of wave turbulence as the source of 
        radiating coherent pulses | 
     
     
      | 15:00 - 15:30 | 
      Tea Break | 
     
     
      | 15:30 - 16:10 | 
       Zaher Hani, New York University 
        Coherent frequency profiles for the periodic nonlinear 
        Schrodinger equation  | 
     
     
      | 16:15 - 16:55 | 
       Nicholas Kevlahan, McMaster 
        University  
        A Conservative Adaptive Wavelet Method for the 
        Rotating Shallow Water Equations on the Sphere | 
     
     
      Tuesday, May 21  
        Fields Institute, Room 230 | 
     
     
      | 9:45 - 10:25 | 
       Slim Ibrahim, University 
        of Victoria 
        Finite-time blow-up for the inviscid Primitive equation | 
     
     
      | 10:25 - 10:45 | 
      Tea Break | 
     
     
      | 10:45 - 11:25 | 
      Paul Milewski, University 
        of Bath  
        Nonlinear-Optics-like Behaviour in Water Waves | 
     
     
      | 11:30 - 12:10 | 
       Alex Korotkevich, University 
        of New Mexico 
        Inverse cascade of gravity waves in the presence 
        of condensate: numerical simulation. | 
     
     
      | 12:10 - 14:20 | 
      Lunch Break | 
     
     
      | 14:20 - 15:00 | 
       Antonio Córdoba, 
        Universita Autonoma - Madrid 
        Singular Integrals in Fluid Mechanics  | 
     
     
      | 15:00 - 15:30 | 
      Tea Break | 
     
     
      | 15:30 - 16:10 | 
      Miguel Bustamante, University 
        College Dublin (presentation slides) 
        Which wave system is more turbulent: strongly 
        or weakly nonlinear?   
        "Big-Amplitude" Charney-Hasegawa-Mima simulation: video 
          "Small-Amplitude" Charney-Hasegawa-Mima simulation: video 
          "Medium-Amplitude" Charney-Hasegawa-Mima simulation: video 
       | 
     
     
      | 16:15 | 
      Reception | 
     
     
      Wednesday, May 22  
        Fields Institute, Room 230 | 
     
     
      | 10:15 - 10:55 | 
      Erwan Faou, ENS Cachan Bretagne 
         Upwind normal forms and nonlinear transport equations 
       | 
     
     
      | 10:55 - 11:15 | 
      Tea Break | 
     
     
      | 11:15 - 11:55 | 
      Baylor Fox-Kemper, Brown University  
        Surface Waves in Turbulent and Laminar Submesoscale 
        Flow  | 
     
     
      | 12:00 - 12:40 | 
       
         Peter Janssen, European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 
          (presentation slides) 
          Effect of sea state on upper-ocean mixing 
        
       | 
     
     
      Thursday, May 23  
        Fields Institute, Room 230 | 
     
     
      | 9:45 - 10:25 | 
      Colm Connaughton, University of Warwick 
        (presentation slide) 
        Feedback of zonal flows on Rossby/drift-wave turbulence 
        driven by small scale instability   
        
       | 
     
     
                | 10:25 - 10:45 | 
      Tea Break | 
     
     
      | 10:45 - 11:25 | 
      Benoît Grébert, Université 
        de Nantes 
        KAM theorem for multidimensional PDEs | 
     
     
      | 11:30 - 12:10 | 
      Armen Shirikyan, Université de 
        Cergy-Pontoise 
        Large deviations from a stationary measure 
        for a class of dissipative PDE's with random kicks  | 
     
     
      | 12:10 - 14:20 | 
      Lunch Break | 
     
     
      | 14:20 - 15:00 | 
      Elena Kartashova, Johannes Kepler University 
         
        Time scales and structures of wave interaction | 
     
     
      | 15:00 - 15:30 | 
      Tea Break | 
     
     
      | 15:30 - 16:10 | 
      Massimiliano Berti, University Federico 
        II of Naples 
        KAM for quasi-linear KdV equations | 
     
     
      | 16:15 - 16:55 | 
      Sergio Rica, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez 
        Observation of the condensation of classical waves | 
     
     
      Friday, May 24  
        Bahen Centre, Room 1190 | 
     
     
      | 9:30 - 10:10 | 
      Samir Hamdi, Laval University 
        Nonlinear interactions of water waves with river 
        ice | 
     
     
      | 10:15 - 10:55 | 
      David Ambrose, Drexel University  
        Traveling and Time-Periodic Waves in Interfacial 
        Fluid Dynamics  | 
     
     
      | 10:55 - 11:15 | 
      Tea Break | 
     
     
      | 11:15 - 11:55 | 
      Victor Shrira, Keele University 
        Towards probability distribution of wave heights 
        in the ocean from first principles  | 
     
     
      | 12:00 - 12:40 | 
      Eugene Wayne, Boston University (presentation 
        slide) 
        Metastability and the Navier-Stokes equations | 
     
   
  
  
     
      Speaker 
        & Affiliation  
         | 
      Title 
        and Abstract | 
     
     
      David Ambrose 
        Drexel University 
       | 
      Traveling and Time-Periodic Waves in Interfacial 
        Fluid Dynamics  
         
          We will discuss issues related to time-periodic and traveling waves 
            for the vortex sheet with surface tension and for the water wave with 
            surface tension. Results include computations of nontrivially time-periodic 
            solutions for the full equations of motion for the vortex sheet with 
            surface tension, and computations and proof of existence of traveling 
            waves (which are trivially time-periodic). The traveling waves to 
            be discussed include large amplitude waves, such as waves with multi-valued 
            height. If time permits, computation and analysis for a simple model 
            system will be discussed.  
          This includes joint work with Jon Wilkening, Benjamin Akers, J. Douglas 
            Wright, Mark Kondrla, Michael Valle, and possibly C. Eugene Wayne. 
         
        
       | 
     
     
      Dario Paolo Bambusi 
        Università degli Studi di Milano  
       | 
       
         On the genaration and propagation of tsunamis  
           
          This lecture is spilt into two parts: in the first one I 
          will discuss a rough model for the formation of a tsunami and in the 
          second one I will present a deduction of a couple of KdV equations as 
          the normal form of the equations for the water wave problem. 
          In the first part I will model the earthquake creating a tsumani 
            by a boundary condition for the water wave problem and deduce the 
            characteristic of the generated wave. In the second part I will start 
            from the Hamiltonian formulation of the water wave problem, based 
            on the use of the Dirichlet Neumann operator, and use normal form 
            techniques to deduce an effective equation fo the propagation of the 
            waves. The effective equation will turn out to coincide with a couple 
            of independent KdV equations.  
         
       | 
     
     
      Massimiliano Berti 
        University Federico II of Naples 
       | 
       
         KAM for quasi-linear KdV equations 
           
          We prove the existence and the stability of Cantor families 
          of quasi-periodic, small amplitude, solutions of quasi-linear autonomous 
          Hamiltonian and reversible KdV equations. The proof is based on a Nash-Moser 
          scheme, the search of an approximate inverse for the linearized operators 
          and a Birkhoff normal form argument. 
       | 
     
     
      Miguel Bustamante 
        University College Dublin 
       | 
       
         Which wave system is more turbulent: strongly or weakly nonlinear? 
           
          In a turbulent nonlinear wave system, there is usually a 
          complex structure of energy transfers between modes of oscillations. 
          In systems of finite size whose governing equation has quadratic or 
          higher nonlinearity (e.g. planetary Rossby waves, water gravity/capillary 
          waves), the wavevectors that interact most efficiently appear in groups 
          of three (so-called triads). These groups tend to form clusters, 
          which are networks of triads connected via one- and two-common-mode 
          connections. 
          The cluster representation of turbulent interactions is particularly 
            well suited for modelling turbulence theory and for comparison with 
            pseudo-spectral numerical simulations, due to the discreteness of 
            the wavevector spectrum in these approaches. 
          I will present two results that shed light on the actual physical 
            mechanisms that are responsible for energy transfer and cascades in 
            turbulence. First, the efficiency of transfers in turbulent cascades 
            is maximised at a nonlinearity level that is intermediate between 
            weakly nonlinear and fully nonlinear. This goes against the common 
            belief that high nonlinearity implies stronger turbulence. Second, 
            clusters formed by non-resonant triads are the rule more than the 
            exception. 
          (Work in collaboration with Brenda Quinn) 
         
       | 
     
     
      Colm Connaghton 
        University of Warwick 
       | 
      Feedback of zonal flows on 
        Rossby/drift-wave turbulence driven by small scale instability  
         
          We demonstrate theoretically and numerically the zonal-flow/wave 
            turbulence feedback mechanism in Charney-Hasegawa-Mima turbulence 
            forced by a small scale instability. Zonal flows are generated by 
            a secondary modulational instability of the waves which are directly 
            driven by the primary instability. The shear generated by the zonal 
            flows then suppresses the small scale turbulence thereby arresting 
            the energy injection into the system. This process can be described 
            using nonlocal wave turbulence theory. Finally, the arrest of the 
            energy input results in saturation of the zonal flows at a level which 
            can be estimated from the theory and the system reaches stationarity 
            even without large scale damping. 
          (Joint work with S. Nazarenko and B. Quinn) 
         
       | 
     
     
      Antonio Córdoba 
        Universita Autonoma - Madrid  | 
      Singular Integrals in Fluid Mechanics  
         
           Two examples will be discussed in order to illustrate how new estimates 
            for singular integrals help us to obtain blow up, in finite time, 
            for transport equations related to the Quasi-Geostrophic system, but 
            also how some classical instruments of fluid dynamics can be used 
            to understand conical Fourier multipliers. 
         
       | 
     
     
      Erwan Faou 
        ENS Cachan Bretagne 
       | 
      Upwind normal forms and nonlinear transport equations 
         
           We consider equations of Vlasov type, with periodic boundary conditions 
            in space and small initial data. We introduce simple Hamiltonian nonlinear 
            transformations allowing to control the long time behavior of these 
            equations. We prove that the dynamics can be reduced to the free linear 
            equation with a modified initial data over very long times. As a consequence, 
            we obtain Landau damping results over polynomially long times with 
            respect to the size of the perturbation, for initial data with finite 
            regularity.  
             
            This is a joint work with Frédéric Rousset (Univ. Rennes 
            1).  
         
        
          
       | 
     
     
      Baylor Fox-Kemper 
        Brown University  
       | 
      Surface Waves in Turbulent and Laminar Submesoscale 
        Flow  
         
           Surface gravity waves--wind waves and swell--can affect the upper 
            ocean in a number of ways. The Craik-Leibovich Boussinesq (CLB) equations 
            are an asymptotic approximation to the fluid equations that filter 
            out the processes leading to surface gravity and sound waves, but 
            preserve the Stokes drift coupling between surface gravity waves and 
            flow. The CLB equations are amenable to Large Eddy Simulations of 
            Langmuir (wave-driven) Turbulence and analysis. I will present recent 
            work with my colleagues studying the effects of Stokes drift in the 
            CLB equations. Surprising and unsurprising results for laminar flow 
            balances, turbulent fluxes, and coupling between turbulence and submesoscale 
            flow will be discussed. Important remaining questions will be highlighted. 
         
       | 
     
     
      Benoît Grébert 
        Université de Nantes 
       | 
       
         KAM theorem for multidimensional PDEs 
          I will present a quick overview of the KAM results proved 
          in the context of nonlinear PDEs. In particular I will detail the recent 
          result that I have obtained in collaboration with H. Eliasson and S. 
          Kuksin for multidimensional PDEs and an application to the Beam equation 
          and the nonlinear wave equation. 
       | 
     
     
       Samir Hamdi 
        Laval University  | 
       
         Nonlinear interactions of water waves with river ice 
          In the first part of our presentation we will discuss some 
          new analytical results regarding the dynamics of river ice wave motion 
          near a breaking front. We will present closed form analytical solutions 
          of ice velocity as a function of time for several values of the breaking 
          front speed and river bank resistance. The solutions are derived by 
          solving an Abel equation of the second kind analytically. Several photos 
          and videos will be presented to illustrate salient features of the dynamics 
          of river ice breakup waves. 
           
          In the second part we will present a nonlinear study of the interaction 
          of floating ice cover with shallow water waves. The ice cover is assumed 
          to be a relatively thin, uniform elastic plate. The nonlinear propagation 
          of waves is analyzed using a coupled system of three time-dependent 
          and nonlinear partial differential equations(PDEs). These governing 
          equations describing fluid continuity, momentum, and ice-cover response 
          are reduced to a fifth order Korteweg-de Vries equation (FKDV), which 
          is a well know evolutionary PDE. It is shown analytically that when 
          the time evolution and nonlinear wave steepening are balanced by wave 
          dispersion due to ice cover bending and inertia of the ice cover and 
          the axial force, the FKDV model equation predicts solitary waves which 
          propagate with a permanent shape and constant speed. Closed-form cnoidal 
          solutions and solitary wave solutions are obtained for any order of 
          the nonlinear term and for any given values of the coefficients of the 
          cubic and quintic dispersive terms. Analytical expressions for three 
          conservation laws and for three invariants of motion that represent 
          the conservation of mass, momentum and energy for solitary wave solutions 
          are also derived. 
       | 
     
     
      Zaher Hani 
        New York University | 
       
         Coherent frequency profiles for the periodic nonlinear Schrodinger 
          equation 
           
         Inspired by the general paradigm of weak turbulence theory, 
          we consider the 2D cubic nonlinear Schrodinger equation with periodic 
          boundary conditions. In an appropriate "large box limit", 
          we derive a continuum equation on $\R^2$, whose solutions serve as approximate 
          profiles (or envelopes) for the frequency modes of the cubic NLS equation. 
          The derived equation turns out to satisfy many surprising symmetries 
          and conservation laws, as well as several families of explicit solutions. 
          (This is joint work with Erwan Faou (INRIA, France) and Pierre Germain 
          (Courant Institute, NYU)). 
       | 
     
     
      Slim Ibrahim 
        University of Victoria | 
       
         Finite-time blow-up for the inviscid Primitive equation  
         
          The Primitive equations are of great use in weather prediction. In 
            large oceanic and atmospheric dynamic models, the viscous Primitive 
            equations can be derived from Boussinesq equations using the so called 
            hydrostatic balance approximation. In this talk we show that, contrarily 
            to the viscous case, for certain class of initial data the corresponding 
            smooth solutions of the inviscid primitive equations blow up in ?finite 
            time. The proof is based on a reduction of the equations to a 1D model. 
            More related results about the 1D model will also be discussed. 
          These are joint works with C. Cao, K. Nakanishi and E. S. Titi. 
         
       | 
     
     
      |  
         Peter A.E.M Janssen 
          European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts  
       | 
       
         Effect of sea state on upper-ocean mixing 
           
         I will briefly discuss sea state effects, such as Stokes-Coriolis 
          force and enhanced mixing by wave breaking on the evolution of the sea 
          surface temperature (SST). In particular I will give a 'simple' derivation 
          of the Stokes drift and I will point out the role of the wave-induced 
          surface drift. Furthermore, I will report work of a number of my collegues 
          who performed on simulations over a 30 year period. It was found that 
          such sea state effects may have a considerable impact on the mean SST 
          field. 
       | 
     
     
       Elena Kartashova 
        Johannes Kepler University  
       | 
       
         Time scales and structures of wave interaction 
          Presently two models for computing energy spectra in weakly 
          nonlinear dispersive media are known: kinetic wave turbulence theory, 
          using a statistical description of an energy cascade over a continuous 
          spectrum (K-cascade), and the D-model, describing resonant clusters 
          and energy cascades (D-cascade) in a deterministic way as interaction 
          of distinct modes. 
          In this talk we give an overview of these structures and their properties 
          and a list of criteria, which model of an energy cascade should be used 
          in the analysis of a given experiment, using water waves as an example. 
          Applying time scale analysis to weakly nonlinear wave systems modeled 
          by the focusing nonlinear Schrodinger equation, we demonstrate that 
          K-cascade and D-cascade are not competing processes but rather two processes 
          taking place at different time scales, at different characteristic levels 
          of nonlinearity and based on different physical mechanisms. 
           
          Applying those criteria to data known from various experiments with 
          water waves we find, that the energy cascades observed occurs at short 
          characteristic times compatible only with a D-cascade. 
       | 
     
     
      Nicholas Kevlahan 
        McMaster University  | 
       
         A Conservative Adaptive Wavelet Method for the Rotating Shallow 
          Water Equations on the Sphere 
          The fundamental computational challenge for climate and weather 
          models is to efficiently and accurately resolve the vast range of space 
          and time scales that characterize atmosphere and ocean flows. Not only 
          do these scales span many orders of magnitude, the minimum dynamically 
          active scale is also highly intermittent in both time and space. In 
          this talk we introduce an innovative wavelet-based approach to dynamically 
          adjust the local grid resolution to maintain a uniform specified error 
          tolerance. The wavelet multiscale method is used to make dynamically 
          adaptive the TRiSK model (Ringler et al. 2010) for the rotating shallow 
          water equations on the sphere. We have carefully designed the inter-scale 
          restriction and prolongation operators to retain the mimetic properties 
          that are the main strength of this model. The wavelet method is computationally 
          efficient and allows for straightforward parallelization using MPI. 
          We will show verification results from the suite of smooth test cases 
          proposed by Williamson (1991), and a more recent nonlinear test case 
          suggested by Galewsky (2004): an unstable mid-latitude zonal jet. To 
          investigate the ability of the method to handle boundary layers in ocean 
          flows, we will also show an example of flow past an island using penalized 
          boundary conditions. This adaptive "dynamical core" serves 
          as the foundation on which to build a complete climate or weather model. 
       | 
     
     
      Kostya Khanin 
        University of Toronto  | 
        | 
     
     
      |  
          Alex Korotkevich 
          University of New Mexico 
       | 
       
         Inverse cascade of gravity waves in the presence of condensate: 
          numerical simulation. 
          We performed simulation of the isotropic turbulence of gravity 
          waves with the pumping narrow in frequency domain. Observed formation 
          of the inverse cascade and condensate in low frequencies. Currently 
          observed slopes of the inverse cascade are close to n_k ~ k^{-3.15}, 
          which differ significantly from theoretically predicted n_k ~ k^{-23/6} 
          ~ k^{-3.83}. In order to investigate the origin of this discrepancy, 
          the dispersion relation for gravity waves was measured directly. Simple 
          qualitative explanation of the results has been given. 
       | 
     
     
      Paul Milewski 
        University of Bath  | 
       
         Nonlinear-Optics-like Behaviour in Water Waves 
          A sufficiently high intensity beam of light in a medium whose 
          refractive index is intensity dependent (such as air or water) will 
          exhibit self focussing until higher order effects, noise, or plasma 
          generation come into play. The cross-sectional profile of the focussed 
          beam depends on the initial profile. It turns out that a very similar 
          phenomenon occurs in a patch of capillary-gravity water waves until 
          nonlinearity arrests the focussing and the patch breaks up into a complex 
          set of localised structures. The connection between the two problems 
          is the focussing 2+1 NLS equation. Whilst water under normal conditions 
          may be too viscous for the phenomena to be observed, computations suggest 
          that the behaviour should be observable in mercury. 
       | 
     
     
       Sergey Nazarenko 
        University of Warwick | 
       
         Theoretical challenges in Wave Turbulence 
           
         Wave Turbulence has a long an successful history and by now 
          it is well accepted as an effective approach for describing physical 
          phenomena across a wide range of applications from quantum to cosmological 
          scales. However, there remain few theoretical challenges concerning 
          rigorous justifications of the assumptions and techniques used in Wave 
          Turbulence, overcomming which would allow to establish Wave Turbulence 
          as a mathematical subject. In my talk I will describe an approach dealing 
          with milti-mode statistics in Wave Turbulence one of the major goals 
          of which is to justify that the assumed statistical properties survive 
          over the nonlinear evolution time. 
       | 
     
    
      Sergio Rico 
        Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez | 
      Observation of the condensation of classical 
        waves | 
     
     
      Benno Rumpf 
        Southern Methodist University  
       | 
       
         An instability of wave turbulence as the source of radiating coherent 
          pulses 
          I discuss the recent finding that wave turbulence can be 
          unstable in certain (usually one dimensional) systems by an instability 
          that breaks spatial homogeneity. This triggers a turbulent transport 
          of energy by radiating pulses. The direct energy cascade is provided 
          by adiabatically evolving pulses, the inverse cascade is due to the 
          excitation of radiation. The spectrum is steeper than the Kolmogorov-Zakharov 
          spectrum of wave turbulence. 
          B. Rumpf, A.C. Newell, V.E. Zakharov, PRL 103, 074502 (2009) A.C. 
            Newell, B. Rumpf, V.E. Zakharov, PRL 109, 194502 (2012) B. Rumpf, 
            A.C. Newell, PLA 377, 1260 (2013) 
         
       | 
     
     
      Armen Shirikyan 
        Université de Cergy-Pontoise  
       | 
       
         Large deviations from a stationary measure for a class of dissipative 
          PDE's with random kicks  
           
          We study a class of dissipative PDE's perturbed by a random 
          kick force. It is well known that if the random perturbation is sufficiently 
          non-degenerate, then the Markov process associated with the problem 
          in question has a unique stationary distribution, which is exponentially 
          mixing. In addition, the strong law of large numbers and the central 
          limit theorem are true. We are now interested in probabilities of deviations 
          for the time average of continuous functionals from their spatial average 
          with respect to the stationary distribution. Our main result shows that 
          the occupation measures of solutions satisfy the LDP with a good rate 
          function. The proof is based on Kifer's criterium for LDP, a Lyapunov-Schmidt 
          type reduction, and a general result on long-time behaviour of generalised 
          Markov semigroups.  
           
          This is a joint work with V. Jaksic, V. Nersesyan, and C.-A. Pillet. 
       | 
     
     
      Victor Shrira 
        Keele University  
       | 
       
          Towards probability distribution of wave heights in the ocean from 
          first principles  
          The ultimate aim of studies of random wind waves is to predict 
          probability density function of wave characteristics, primarily wave 
          height, at any given place and time. Within the framework of wave turbulence 
          paradigm the evolution of wave spectra is described by the kinetic (Hasselmann) 
          equation derived from first principles in the sixties and now routinely 
          employed in operational forecasting. In contrast, in present the probability 
          density function is found using some empirical formulae. 
           We study long-term nonlinear evolution of typical random wind waves 
            which are characterized by broad-banded spectra and quasi-Gaussian 
            statistics. We find the departure of wave statistics from Gaussianity 
            from first principles using higher-order statistical momenta (skewness 
            and kurtosis) as a measure of this departure. Non-zero values of kurtosis 
            mean an increase or decrease of extreme wave probability (compared 
            to that in a Gaussian sea), which is important for assessing the risk 
            of freak waves and other applications. The approach is as follows. 
            Non-Gaussianity of a weakly nonlinear random wave field has two components. 
            The first one is due to nonlinear wave-wave interactions. We refer 
            to this component as `dynamic', since it is linked to wave field evolution. 
            The other component is due to bound harmonics. It is non-zero for 
            every wave field with finite amplitude, contributes both to skewness 
            and kurtosis of gravity water waves, and can be determined entirely 
            from the instantaneous spectrum of surface elevation. We calculate 
            the dynamic kurtosis by two different methods. First, by performing 
            a DNS simulation of wind-generated random wave fields, using a specially 
            designed algorithm, based on the Zakharov equation for water waves. 
            Second, using the integral formulae found by Janssen (2003). In all 
            generic situations, the contribution to kurtosis due to wave interactions 
            is shown to be small compared to the bound harmonics contribution. 
            This crucial observation enables us to determine higher momenta by 
            calculating the bound harmonics part directly from spectra using asymptotic 
            expressions. Thus, the departure of evolving wave fields from Gaussianity 
            is explicitly contained in the instantaneous wave spectra. This enables 
            us to broaden significantly the capability of the existing systems 
            for wave forecasting: in addition to simulation of spectra it becomes 
            possible to find also higher momenta and, hence, the probability density 
            function. We found that the contributions due to bound harmonics to 
            both skewness and kurtosis are significant for oceanic waves, and 
            non-zero kurtosis (typically in the range 0.1-0.3) implies a tangible 
            increase of freak wave probability.  
          For random wave fields generated by steady or slowly varying wind 
            and for swell the derived large-time asymptotics of skewness and kurtosis 
            predict power law decay of the moments. The exponents of these laws 
            are determined by the degree of homogeneity of the interaction coefficients. 
            For all self-similar regimes the kurtosis decays twice as fast as 
            the skewness. These formulae complement the known large-time asymptotics 
            for spectral evolution prescribed by the Hasselmann equation. The 
            results are verified by the DNS of random wave fields based on the 
            Zakharov equation. The predicted asymptotic behaviour is shown to 
            be very robust: it holds both for steady and gusty winds.  
          From observations very little is known about the higher moments of 
            sea waves statistics. For observational model of wave spectra (JONSWAP) 
            we derived simple formulae for skewness and kurtosis valid for a very 
            broad range of parameters.  
         
       | 
     
     
      Eugene Wayne 
        Boston University | 
       
         Metastability and the Navier-Stokes equations 
          The study of stable, or stationary, states of a physical 
          system is a well established field of applied mathematics. Less well 
          known or understood are ``metastable'' states. Such states are a signal 
          that multiple time scales are important in the problem - for instance, 
          one associated with the emergence of the metastable state, one associated 
          with the evolution along the family of such states, and one associated 
          with the emergence of the asymptotic states. I will describe a dynamical 
          systems based approach to metastable behavior in the two-dimensional 
          Navier-Stokes equation. 
       | 
     
   
  Confirmed 
    Participants as of May 14, 2013 
    * to be confirmed 
  
     
      | Full Name | 
      University/Affiliation | 
     
     
      | Ambrose, David | 
      Drexel University | 
     
     
      | Ayala, Diego | 
      McMaster University | 
     
     
      | Bambusi, Dario Paolo | 
      Università degli Studi di Milano | 
     
     
      | Berti, Massimiliano | 
      University Federico II of Naples | 
     
     
      | Bustamante, Miguel | 
      University College Dublin | 
     
     
      | Castaing, M. Richard | 
      Ecole Polytechnique | 
     
     
      | Chabchoub, Amin | 
      Hamburg University of Technology | 
     
     
      | Chabchoub, Amin | 
      Hamburg University of Technology | 
     
     
      | Choi, Yeontaek | 
      National Inst. Math. Sciences, South Korea | 
     
     
      | Connaughton, Colm | 
      University of Warwick | 
     
     
      | Córdoba, Antonio | 
      Universita Autonoma - Madrid | 
     
     
      | Craig, Walter | 
      McMaster University | 
     
     
      | Dutykh, Denys | 
      University College Dublin | 
     
     
      | Faou, Erwan | 
      ENS Cachan Bretagne | 
     
     
      | Fedele, Francesco | 
      Georgia Institute of Technology | 
     
     
      | Fox-Kemper, Baylor | 
      Brown University | 
     
     
      | Fruman, Mark | 
      Goethe University Frankfurt | 
     
     
      | Garcia, Carlos | 
      McMaster University | 
     
     
      | Goncalves, Iury Angelo | 
      National Institute for Space Research | 
     
     
      | Grébert, Benoît | 
      Université de Nantes | 
     
     
      | Hani, Zaher | 
      New York University | 
     
    
      | Hamdi, Samir | 
      Laval University | 
     
     
      | Harper, Katie | 
      University of Warwick | 
     
     
      | Henderson, Diane | 
      Pennsylvania State University | 
     
     
      | Henry, Legena | 
      University of the West Indies | 
     
     
      | Hoang, Tung | 
      University of Waterloo | 
     
     
      | Ibrahim, Slim | 
      University of Victoria | 
     
     
      | Jackson, Ken | 
      University of Toronto | 
     
     
      | Janssen, Peter A.E.M | 
      European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) | 
     
     
      | Kartashova, Elena | 
      Johannes Kepler University | 
     
     
      | Kevlahan, Nicholas | 
      McMaster University | 
     
     
      | Korotkevich, Alexander | 
      University of New Mexico | 
     
     
      | Kuksin, Sergei | 
      CNRS | 
     
     
      | Lacave, Christophe | 
      l'université Paris-Diderot (Paris 7) | 
     
     
      | Lannes, David | 
      Ecole Normale Superieure - Paris | 
     
     
      | Milewski, Paul | 
      University of Bath | 
     
     
      | Nazarenko, Sergey | 
      University of Warwick | 
     
     
      | Pelinovsky, Efim | 
      Russian Academy of Sciences | 
     
     
      | Proment, Davide | 
      University of East Anglia | 
     
     
      | Quinn, Brenda | 
      University College Dublin | 
     
     
      | Restrepo, Juan | 
      University of Arizona | 
     
     
      | Rica, Sergio | 
      Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez | 
     
     
      | Rumpf, Benno | 
      Southern Methodist University | 
     
     
      | Schober, Constance | 
      University of Central Florida | 
     
     
      | Shrira, Victor | 
      Keele University | 
     
     
      | Tataru, Daniel | 
      University of California, Berkeley | 
     
     
      | Trichtchenko, Olga | 
      University of Washington | 
     
     
      | Viotti, Claudio | 
      University college dublin | 
     
     
      | Wayne, C. Eugene | 
      Boston University | 
     
     
      | Yang, Chi-ru | 
      McMaster University | 
     
   
  
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