An increase in wildlife disease has been identified in urban areas; however, the drivers of this increase remain unknown. Leveraging multi-city biomonitoring efforts across North America, we assessed whether greater disease occurrence was correlated with urban characteristics, habitat connectivity loss, and climate change. We focused on sarcoptic mange (Sarcoptes scabiei), an emerging panzootic disease, using coyote (Canis latrans) camera trap images. Locally, disease occurrence was greater at sites with higher urban intensity and in proximity to connectivity corridors, and at the continental scale, disease occurrence was greater in cities with higher human population density and fewer connectivity corridors. Following our findings, we forecast an increase in mange occurrence across cities by 2050, most prominently at northern latitudes following a combined effect of urban densification and milder winters affecting host space use overlap and host and mite survival. Urban planning for supporting habitat connectivity and proactive disease management policies can improve wildlife welfare and limit the economical effects of zoonosis.

Keywords: One Health, Sarcoptic mange, Bayesian statistics, Urban Wildlife, Disease Ecology