Effective management of migratory wildlife populations, especially those that traverse multiple jurisdictions, requires accurate estimates of the spatio-temporal distributions of specific populations. Thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia), a pan-Arctic colonial breeding seabird, are experiencing declines across much of their North Atlantic breeding range. Murres from colonies across the North Atlantic migrate to subarctic waters in winter to avoid sea ice and polar night. Multinational tracking efforts have documented short and long-range migratory movements of murres throughout the North Atlantic basin. Birds from breeding populations in one jurisdiction may encounter risks from anthropogenic activities while in the territorial waters of other countries. For instance, murres migrating across the North Atlantic are exposed to harvest in Canada, Greenland, and Iceland. We developed a dynamic species distribution model (SDM) to predict and forecast murre distributions across the Atlantic at weekly intervals. The SDM can generate near real-time distribution estimates using oceanographic forecast models, providing valuable insights to inform harvest management, environmental impact assessments, and emergency response planning.

Keywords: Seabirds, Species Distribution Model, Marine Ecology