Forage fish are small, schooling species that transfer energy from plankton to higher trophic levels and comprise a large proportion of biomass in many productive coastal ocean ecosystems. Yet their spatiotemporal distributions remain poorly resolved and difficult to predict. We used 30 years (1993–2023) of catch data from the Northeast Fisheries Science Center bottom trawl survey to develop season-specific, spatially explicit models for key forage species: Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus), Atlantic butterfish (Peprilus triacanthus), sand lance (Ammodytes spp.), and alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus). We compared model-predicted habitat suitability under contemporary conditions (1993–2002) to near term decadal forecasts (2025–2034) derived from the NOAA Modular Ocean Model 6 to quantify projected shifts across regions of the Northwest Atlantic. Our results reveal strong season- and region-dependent responses to future ocean conditions across species. Suitable habitat is projected to generally increase in fall, whereas spring responses are mixed and species-specific. These findings demonstrate that forage fish responses to changing ocean conditions are not uniform, reflecting the importance of seasonal dynamics and species-specific adaptive capacity in shaping forage fish distributions. Accounting for this heterogeneity will be critical for improving ecosystem-based management and anticipating impacts on predators, fisheries, and coastal communities.

Keywords: Gulf of Maine, Georges Bank, Marine protected areas, Fisheries