One fiscal swallow does make a summer: An Empirical Tale of the U.S. economy
Monetary and fiscal policy are two critical tools that governments use to manage economic activity. In this sense, the theoretical index proposed by Pasinetti seems to provide an alternative monetary policy rule that is suitable for the coordination of the two policy instruments in a satisfactory way, thus contemporaneously targeting economic growth and stability. In this paper, we seek to empirically assess the role of monetary and fiscal policies on the determination of real wages and labour productivity, decomposing the empirical Pasinetti Index proposed by Seccareccia and Lavoie (2016). We do so by relying on Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) modelling techniques using US quarterly data for the period 1979-2020. Whereas in the benchmark model we will consider the federal funds rate, in the alternative model we will re-estimate the model relying on the long-term government (10 year) bond yield.