Risk-Aware Goal-Based Investing: A Quantile and Reinforcement Learning Appproach
We study the problem of active portfolio management where an investor seeks to minimise risk while attaining probabilistic constraint on terminal wealth (i.e., has an aspiration criterion) as well as a budget constraint; specifically, we consider investors with rank dependent expected utility preferences. We show that, in a general class of market models, the problem admits a quantile formulation and further that the optimal quantile can be characterized explicitly through the notion of isotonic projections. Moreover, we develop a risk-aware reinforcement learning methodology that employs a deep policy gradient framework to approximate the optimal strategy and illustrate the results for a variety of risk profiles and aspiration criteria.