Predictions of plant community dynamics under different management scenarios are made for different heathland habitat types using 20 years of national monitoring data from 40-100 sites. The empirical spa-tial and temporal modelling assumes a structural equation model of the driving factors in a temperate heathland ecosystem, and the model is fitted using hierarchical Bayesian methods to separate sampling and process errors.

The observed change in plant species cover is explained well by the temporal model (>95% of the variance explained).

Local 5-year forecasts are used in an adaptive management process at specific heathland ecosystems in collaboration with local managers and stakeholders.

Keywords: Heathland ecosystems, time-series data, plant cover, adaptive management